China and the Philippines have been locked in a stand-off in disputed waters known as the Scarborough Shoal in English and Huangyan island in Chinese since April 8th. Beijing delivered tough messages to the Philippines, and even sent five warships from Okinawa, Japan to the South China Sea. Chinese Analyst Li Tianxiao believes that to the outside world, Hu Jintao must declare sovereignty over the Scarborough Shoal, but even more importantly is that inside China, Hu wants to use this to win credibility within the military, so as to futher gain the upper hand against the Jiang faction.
China Analyst Li Tianxiao says that if Hu Jintao plans to arrest Zhou Yongkang, first he needs to secure his power as the Chairman of the CCP Central Military Commission to avoid being overcome by Liang Guanglie, the minister of the Department of Defense, who belongs to Jiang faction.
[Li Tianxiao, China Analyst]: “In terms of the control of the army, Hu has never been as solid as he is today. Now if he wants to further strengthen his power, he needs to have some military achievements. In other words, he needs a battle. In this way, he’ll have more say, just like Deng Xiaoping had a battle with Vietnam in 1979. Hu shares much the same idea.”
Li said, if Hu can gain some military achievements, he will hold an absolute advantage when it comes to wielding authority at the 18th CCP National Congress.
[Li Tianxiao, China Analyst]: ”He’ll possibly be able to stay on in his position as the Chairman of the CCP Central Military Commission for two more years. This power will secure his control over the Jiang faction, and will bring them to justice eventually.”
[Li Tianxiao, China Analyst]: “And what is more, because the Central Military Commission will undergo a major reshuffle during the 18th congress, many seats will be left free. After he has Military achievements, he will have the major say on how the seats will be distributed.”
Several days before, Chinese Navy Rear Admiral Li Shaohong suddenly declared to the public that in dealing with the South China Sea stand-off, the navy will follow the command of CCP central under the leadership of Hu Jintao. People understand that this is a challenge to Liang Guanglie, the minister of CCP’s Department of Defense, and implies that Liang does not have the power to controlling the South China Sea issue.
NTDTV, Chang Chun and Tang Yu interviewed and reported.